French Presidential Election Results - Should Muslims Be Worried? (2022-04-11) ​

0:00:03 hello everyone and welcome to blogging
0:00:05 theology today i am delighted to talk to
0:00:08 imran muller welcome back sir
0:00:11 thank you very much for having me
0:00:13 imran as you i'm sure you know is a
0:00:15 specialist on britain's policies towards
0:00:17 muslims domestically and he has done
0:00:20 work assisting award-winning journalist
0:00:22 peter aborn on research for his
0:00:24 forthcoming book which is entitled the
0:00:27 fate of abraham why the west is wrong
0:00:31 about islam that's due to be published
0:00:33 next month
0:00:35 imran has also studied the french
0:00:37 attitude to its muslim population and is
0:00:40 particularly interested in france as a
0:00:43 comparison with britain
0:00:45 he is a student of history at cambridge
0:00:48 university and has written for
0:00:50 publications including traversing
0:00:52 tradition athwart and conservative home
0:00:56 and you can follow him on his twitter
0:00:58 handle uh at osmani 268 that's o s m a n
0:01:04 i
0:01:04 2 6 8.
0:01:07 so
0:01:08 the 2022
0:01:10 present french presidential elections
0:01:12 took place yesterday with some
0:01:15 surprising results
0:01:17 uh here's one example the the far-right
0:01:19 politician marine le pen obtained her
0:01:22 highest result ever at the first round
0:01:25 of a presidential election on sunday
0:01:29 now she'll now go head-to-head with
0:01:31 president macron in a final vote on the
0:01:34 24th of april and many will want to know
0:01:38 me included
0:01:39 how different could france be with le
0:01:42 pen as president
0:01:45 so could you kindly give us an update on
0:01:47 what is going on there other surprising
0:01:49 results as well and how worried should
0:01:52 french muslims be about the possible
0:01:55 outcome
0:01:55 Music
0:01:57 well i mean
0:01:58 that's a very good introduction very
0:02:00 good summary of the situation
0:02:02 the first thing that i would note is
0:02:04 that french politics
0:02:06 has changed so much
0:02:08 in the past few years so much so that
0:02:10 the two parties that used to be the main
0:02:13 political forces in the country so the
0:02:16 socialist party and the republicans have
0:02:18 been obliterated at this election so the
0:02:21 socialists um the socialist party
0:02:23 actually used to govern the country uh
0:02:25 not that long ago the socialist
0:02:27 candidate this time got one point eight
0:02:29 percent of the vote
0:02:31 yeah i mean
0:02:33 hello
0:02:34 it's very dramatic actually a dramatic
0:02:37 decline that basically is no socialist
0:02:39 party anymore essentially um and then
0:02:42 valerie cress who
0:02:44 at one point
0:02:48 looked like the front runner to
0:02:49 challenge macron so she's the republican
0:02:52 party candidate uh the center-right
0:02:54 candidate she only got 4.8 percent so uh
0:02:58 the republicans have essentially been
0:02:59 completely decimated as well uh
0:03:01 meanwhile eric zuma got 7.1 percent
0:03:04 which is
0:03:06 very disappointing for him and his
0:03:08 followers but on the other hand um it is
0:03:10 a significant achievement that he
0:03:12 started a political movement from
0:03:14 essentially nothing he got enough
0:03:16 signatures from elected officials to
0:03:18 actually be able to compete in the
0:03:20 election and then he got 7.1 percent of
0:03:23 the vote i mean that's nearly yeah one
0:03:25 in 10 french voters uh cast their vote
0:03:29 for eric zamor just a quick reminder
0:03:31 he's the guy who called for a ban on the
0:03:35 name muhammad that's how extreme his
0:03:38 anti-muslim rhetoric has been um but it
0:03:41 could be much it could have been much
0:03:42 worse he could have done much better um
0:03:45 the two candidates who will be heading
0:03:47 into the final vote on the 24th of april
0:03:51 are president macron and as you
0:03:53 mentioned marine le pen so macron has
0:03:56 got
0:03:57 27.8 percent of the vote which is
0:03:59 actually um
0:04:01 very good for him he he did much better
0:04:04 than some people were expecting and then
0:04:06 it looked like he would do earlier in
0:04:09 the race and i think he was really
0:04:10 helped by actually russia's horrific
0:04:13 invasion of ukraine because he began to
0:04:16 look like more of a statesman and a lot
0:04:18 of french people who maybe didn't like
0:04:21 macron thought well at least he's
0:04:23 someone who actually looks like he can
0:04:25 be a proper president and lead the
0:04:27 country and we don't really trust marine
0:04:30 le pen to do that so uh macron is
0:04:33 leading le pen by about four percentage
0:04:35 points um and it it's not ultimately
0:04:38 that much he's done well but he faces a
0:04:41 significant uh challenge because you
0:04:43 know it's gonna be macron versus le pen
0:04:46 just those two uh in the final round i
0:04:48 think though the truly remarkable thing
0:04:51 about this election is that uh melon
0:04:57 uh the main left wing uh candidate he
0:04:59 got 22 percent of the vote
0:05:02 i was i was very surprised to see that i
0:05:05 mean
0:05:06 incredible um advance for him
0:05:08 politically i didn't see that happening
0:05:10 it is and he just got you know so it's
0:05:12 just like one
0:05:14 one percent less than le pen actually i
0:05:16 mean that's extraordinary now melons
0:05:19 supporters will all say that well the
0:05:21 fact that we have a divided left is why
0:05:24 melon shawn uh isn't placing macron in
0:05:27 the final round because you know four
0:05:29 point six percent of the vote went to
0:05:31 the green candidate uh yannick jadal um
0:05:34 the communist party candidate got 2.3
0:05:37 percent so actually if the left hadn't
0:05:39 been divided like that melonshone would
0:05:41 easily have surpassed uh le pen but you
0:05:45 know it's not to be but it is
0:05:46 extraordinary that people voted for that
0:05:48 melon he's rejected the
0:05:52 anti-immigrant rhetoric of both eric
0:05:54 zamor marine le pen and actually
0:05:56 procrasti as well he's also uh so he he
0:05:59 has a islamophobic record i should say
0:06:02 this islamophobia in france um straddles
0:06:06 the entire political spectrum so
0:06:09 melonshone has a record of saying uh you
0:06:12 know in france we don't wear the
0:06:13 headscarf he's been against muslim women
0:06:16 wearing the headscarf actually le pen a
0:06:19 few years ago she went to lebanon and
0:06:21 she entered a mosque she refused to
0:06:24 cover her head and melanchol defended
0:06:26 her and said no one tells french people
0:06:29 what to wear so how's this great
0:06:30 actually i actually remember that i
0:06:32 remember thinking what you know how can
0:06:34 the political left be supporting the far
0:06:36 right over what issue oh bashing muslims
0:06:39 that's when they're united oh god
0:06:42 yeah
0:06:42 exactly support for legacy for france's
0:06:45 secularism has been um it is hegemonic
0:06:49 uh but melon shawn he's shifted uh
0:06:52 more recently in the past few years so
0:06:54 in in 2020 when uh macron was ramping up
0:06:57 his um assault on muslim civil society
0:07:00 an anti-muslim rhetoric was really
0:07:02 reaching fever pitch
0:07:05 melancholism doesn't mean that we have
0:07:07 to hate a religion he said that in
0:07:09 france there is hatred of muslims dis uh
0:07:12 disguised as secularism so he has come
0:07:15 out against you know zamor's rhetoric he
0:07:18 ferociously debated zamor on what it
0:07:21 means to be french zamora was suggesting
0:07:23 that muslim migration is a threat to
0:07:25 france uh melanchol was opposing this
0:07:28 and he does have significant support
0:07:30 from uh ethnic minorities in france uh
0:07:33 and particularly uh north africans
0:07:36 actually so melancholy recognized that
0:07:38 um he needs to tap into that electorate
0:07:41 and uh that is not helpful for him to
0:07:44 also be jumping on the kind of uh
0:07:47 anti-muslim bandwagon so it's very
0:07:49 interesting that uh 22
0:07:52 of voters decided to back melonshot with
0:07:55 his rejection of the far-right populism
0:07:59 of uh marine le pen and eric zuma and
0:08:02 very significant and it really shows
0:08:04 that we can't you know we should never
0:08:06 judge um an entire people by you know
0:08:09 the actions or opinions of some some
0:08:12 within them you always look for the
0:08:13 individual there are individuals there
0:08:15 are there are many many people in france
0:08:18 who oppose the persecution of muslims
0:08:20 and say well
0:08:21 they are french citizens as well they
0:08:24 have the right to be here we shouldn't
0:08:25 oppose them there are lots of french
0:08:27 people who do think that and i would
0:08:29 stress that point to um the listeners
0:08:32 no no it's a very good point and
0:08:34 intriguing in my region of france where
0:08:35 i live in the in the shares which is
0:08:37 sort of south west france the uh the
0:08:39 split and the vote was pretty much the
0:08:41 same actually in that in that particular
0:08:43 region as it was uh nationally and even
0:08:46 in my village the the split has been
0:08:48 exactly the same so it looks as if
0:08:50 french society is uh fractured uh in in
0:08:54 in that way across the board but the the
0:08:56 the question i really have is about uh
0:08:59 this politician marine le pen who now i
0:09:02 mean there's a couple there's a couple
0:09:03 of weeks really now uh until the
0:09:05 election and anything as we know as
0:09:07 you've said anything can happen uh in
0:09:10 you know weak the cliche in britain is a
0:09:12 weak as a long term in politics two
0:09:13 weeks in france is even longer um
0:09:16 anything can happen so if she was
0:09:19 to become the next president of the
0:09:22 republic um what kind of france can we
0:09:25 expect to see what's going to happen to
0:09:28 what's what's she going to do do you
0:09:30 think
0:09:31 well i think it will be
0:09:33 very troubling she's not
0:09:35 her platform is not so dramatic as eric
0:09:38 zuma's who wanted to stop immigration
0:09:40 and you know ban arabic names um but le
0:09:44 pen is from the national rally party
0:09:46 which is renamed it used to be the
0:09:48 national front
0:09:49 um
0:09:50 and her father jean-marie le pen uh was
0:09:54 a very famous politician now this party
0:09:57 uh is a far-right party actually one of
0:09:59 their main barriers still today is that
0:10:02 many elderly people in france really see
0:10:05 them as having this far-right stigma
0:10:07 because they were
0:10:08 it was known for being a very
0:10:10 anti-semitic party actually a couple of
0:10:13 decades ago uh and uh this is a party
0:10:16 that opposed algerian independence so it
0:10:19 absolutely opposed france giving up
0:10:22 algeria so it has that legacy le pen has
0:10:25 always been
0:10:27 anti-muslim in her politics
0:10:30 ferociously so um her current platform
0:10:33 is that she wants to
0:10:35 ban
0:10:36 the
0:10:37 hijab
0:10:38 in all public places so currently the
0:10:40 hijab is banned in you know schools the
0:10:43 face veil is banned everywhere le pen
0:10:45 says no hijab in public places which is
0:10:48 remarkable because people are still
0:10:50 allowed to wear hoodies
0:10:52 so you can cover your head in some ways
0:10:54 but if it's if it's seen as a sign of
0:10:56 muslimness or islamic practice then it's
0:10:59 unacceptable
0:11:02 but that would result in mass
0:11:04 persecution of muslims in france i i i
0:11:07 mean
0:11:08 in my kind of subjective impression i i
0:11:10 don't get the impression that
0:11:12 muslim sisters wear the hijab as much as
0:11:14 they do in britain i mean in my kind of
0:11:16 toulouse and that but nevertheless it
0:11:18 will if the police have to enforce this
0:11:20 that means they're going to be basically
0:11:22 agents of persecution
0:11:24 on a massive
0:11:27 industrial scale targeting muslim women
0:11:29 and forcing them to deny their faith by
0:11:32 taking off
0:11:33 what is very
0:11:34 in a sense trivial a head scarf is not a
0:11:36 big deal and it would just
0:11:38 it would almost be like civil war it
0:11:40 would be
0:11:41 unspeakable in a an allegedly modern
0:11:44 liberal democracy in the west for that
0:11:46 to happen you know just reminds me of
0:11:49 similar incidents in the 1930s even it
0:11:52 would just be absolutely extraordinary i
0:11:54 just can't imagine how it would work in
0:11:55 practice as i'm trying to say
0:11:57 um yeah no
0:11:59 neither can i actually um and it it
0:12:02 would be um forced forced assimilation
0:12:05 um
0:12:07 it would make life
0:12:08 unlivable for many
0:12:11 women across the country actually they'd
0:12:13 have to make they'd have to make that
0:12:15 decision you know um
0:12:18 for the police it would be an
0:12:19 extraordinary task i mean it's it's
0:12:22 one can imagine that what would actually
0:12:24 happen is that in many areas where there
0:12:27 are lots of muslims uh women actually
0:12:30 would walk around
0:12:31 still wearing
0:12:33 the head stuff and um you know and then
0:12:35 a police car would come past and
0:12:37 everyone would say look police and
0:12:39 you can imagine it it'll be absolute
0:12:41 chaos and and people would uh resist it
0:12:44 reasonably uh they wouldn't want to just
0:12:47 so obey everyone wouldn't say yes this
0:12:49 is fine but there'd also be um
0:12:52 significant pushback from uh
0:12:56 the judiciary i think uh i think the
0:13:00 the machinery of the state would be
0:13:02 against le pen if she came into power
0:13:05 and wouldn't allow her to uh actually
0:13:08 implement some of this more extreme
0:13:10 stuff so so there is that hope because
0:13:13 they you know um these people don't they
0:13:15 don't agree with le pen's platform and
0:13:18 actually
0:13:19 the judiciary has a record of sometimes
0:13:22 actually reigning in some of the extreme
0:13:25 uh populism and saying that no this is
0:13:28 discrimination this isn't fair so there
0:13:30 is that hope uh that a lot of le pen's
0:13:33 platform would be unworkable and that
0:13:35 she won't be able to do it but imagine
0:13:37 being a muslim and having a president
0:13:40 who wants to do that stuff even if it's
0:13:42 not actually being implemented it's
0:13:44 still very significant and then you can
0:13:46 imagine how the rhetoric might escalate
0:13:48 as well but le pen she also has other
0:13:50 policies targeting muslims and she has
0:13:53 blatantly nativist political policies so
0:13:55 she says um we should prioritize native
0:13:59 french citizens when it comes to um
0:14:03 health care and housing and that kind of
0:14:05 thing i mean all this would be
0:14:06 absolutely unthinkable in britain you
0:14:09 couldn't i mean the conservative
0:14:10 government you couldn't imagine
0:14:13 them saying anything like that it'd be
0:14:15 completely beyond the pale but that is
0:14:17 being proposed by le pen she's also
0:14:20 saying something extraordinary which is
0:14:22 that we should strip french citizenship
0:14:25 from those who espouse extreme islamist
0:14:28 views now the problem is is that you
0:14:31 know
0:14:32 how is extreme islamists being defined
0:14:35 because japan defines islamists as you
0:14:38 know just conservative muslim practice
0:14:41 and
0:14:41 defending the hijab for example wouldn't
0:14:43 women have a right
0:14:45 extreme radical stripping of history but
0:14:48 by the way a lot of muslims are
0:14:49 obviously uh in france are born in
0:14:51 france um
0:14:53 stripped of their citizenship where they
0:14:55 gonna go
0:14:56 iceland norway i mean seriously i mean
0:14:59 where do you go to a stateless person
0:15:01 who's actually born in the country
0:15:02 you've just taken his country from i
0:15:03 don't get the logic of that um anyway
0:15:06 it's a completely unworkable plan and it
0:15:08 sends a quite chilling message to um you
0:15:12 know to to muslims that they're not as
0:15:14 french as other people because their
0:15:16 citizenship is conditional on them
0:15:18 actually having the right views so it's
0:15:20 it's an extreme uh implementation of
0:15:23 thought crime actually very very
0:15:26 worrying uh for french muslims so the
0:15:28 platform is it's not quite as extreme as
0:15:30 zamus and she has she she hasn't
0:15:33 exactly
0:15:34 prioritized um the discussion of islam
0:15:38 in her election campaign because she's
0:15:40 wanted to distinguish herself from zamos
0:15:43 so she's wanted to say well summer's the
0:15:45 kind of um the crazy far right one uh
0:15:48 that you should be scared of compared to
0:15:50 him i'm reasonable i have all these um
0:15:53 you know views on the economy she does
0:15:54 have lots of other policies economic
0:15:57 policies um but she does there is this
0:16:00 core um
0:16:02 anti-muslim impetus to uh le pen's
0:16:05 politics but i think people should be
0:16:07 very worried about
0:16:09 doesn't she want to get france out of
0:16:11 nato and and possibly out of the eu as
0:16:14 well i mean she so she's gone back on on
0:16:16 some of those older she used to be
0:16:18 anti-eu now she's actually she's given
0:16:21 up on that because it was proving
0:16:23 a lot of these positions were just
0:16:24 proving too toxic you know previously
0:16:27 she had some sort of sympathy for putin
0:16:30 as well she's obviously gone back on
0:16:32 that now because it's so it's considered
0:16:34 a little bit unacceptable yeah yeah yeah
0:16:38 exactly so le pen has undergone a
0:16:40 rebranding and actually is quite a
0:16:42 successful uh rebranding i think
0:16:45 right so she doesn't want to leave nato
0:16:47 anymore as well is that still no no as
0:16:50 as far as i'm as far as i know um that's
0:16:52 not on the table anymore right so she's
0:16:54 clipped back a lot of her more radical
0:16:56 policies uh except when it comes uh
0:16:59 uh to to muslims it seems so next
0:17:02 question really is we got a couple of
0:17:03 weeks then until the uh final vote on
0:17:06 the 24th of april in france a lot can
0:17:09 happen between now and then but just
0:17:12 just speculating for a second so i'm
0:17:14 assuming that zamor's support the seven
0:17:17 point whatever it was support that went
0:17:19 to him during the first round will
0:17:21 automatically go to le pen i mean who
0:17:23 else they're going to vote for they're
0:17:23 not going to vote for
0:17:25 the socialists or macron are they so
0:17:27 okay so she'll benefit from that
0:17:29 but then macron may well benefit from
0:17:33 uh the the other parties uh who are not
0:17:36 in the in the second round so
0:17:38 how's this all gonna balance out do you
0:17:40 think in the maths
0:17:41 is macron gonna win because he will get
0:17:44 the others supporting him during the
0:17:46 second round
0:17:48 um
0:17:49 unfortunately i don't think it uh i
0:17:51 don't think it is very clear that macron
0:17:54 will win um the the maths doesn't
0:17:56 support of course uh you know
0:17:58 there are two weeks left a lot can
0:18:02 happen in two weeks so anyway we can't
0:18:04 sort of look at the picture today and
0:18:06 say and map that onto two weeks from now
0:18:09 um but also there is
0:18:11 it's not so straightforward as uh
0:18:14 melancholic supporters will uh go to
0:18:16 macron or even though some more
0:18:18 supporters actually will vote for le pen
0:18:21 so i think the first thing i'd say is
0:18:23 that le pen is the candidate that macron
0:18:26 wanted to face uh in
0:18:29 in the second round of the election he
0:18:30 didn't want to go up against zamur and
0:18:33 that's because zamora was an
0:18:35 unpredictable candidate um le pen she
0:18:38 has the support of the
0:18:39 anti-establishment nationalist right but
0:18:42 the establishment right really doesn't
0:18:45 like le pen and samoa um was gaining a
0:18:48 lot of support from the establishment
0:18:50 right so there was the fear that if it's
0:18:53 zamor versus
0:18:55 macron and people had to choose actually
0:18:57 zamur could end up somehow reuniting the
0:19:01 establishment right with the
0:19:02 anti-establishment nationalist run and
0:19:04 then he could win and le pen
0:19:07 doesn't have that same kind of mass
0:19:09 appeal she's predictable macron's faced
0:19:12 her before so he didn't want to go up
0:19:14 against le pen so he'll be happy uh
0:19:17 right now to be facing uh le pen um
0:19:21 but it's it you know 76 percent of the
0:19:25 most supporters will vote for le pen uh
0:19:28 four percent bizarrely for macron for
0:19:31 whatever reason
0:19:33 okay potentially because they they're
0:19:35 hoping that things will get worse and
0:19:37 then um some more can sort of make an
0:19:40 epic comeback in a few years
0:19:42 that kind of thing but but the rest this
0:19:44 is a significant part 20
0:19:46 of the more supporters don't aren't
0:19:48 gonna vote they say that they'll abstain
0:19:52 so actually
0:19:53 le pen's challenge is to try and draw in
0:19:56 a lot of these supporters and they'll
0:19:57 abstain because you know they don't like
0:19:59 le pen uh a lot of these are more
0:20:01 supporters
0:20:03 so why why do they like le pen i mean
0:20:05 basically they're kind of cut off from
0:20:07 the same cloth aren't they they're not
0:20:09 that different so what why on earth
0:20:11 would they not vote for le pen to keep
0:20:13 out
0:20:14 macro i i don't see what's there
0:20:17 le pen comes from a different um
0:20:20 political tradition so you know she's
0:20:23 seen as quite toxic uh by many people
0:20:26 who sort of revere uh
0:20:28 de gaulle and
0:20:30 you know a kind of more traditional
0:20:32 establishment vision of france and the
0:20:34 national front uh le pen's party was
0:20:38 always sort of defined in opposition to
0:20:40 that and so among
0:20:42 elderly
0:20:43 voters in particular they really don't
0:20:46 you know a lot of them don't like le pen
0:20:48 because of this connection whereas zamor
0:20:51 doesn't have that problem and that's why
0:20:53 they've got all that baggage then that
0:20:55 uh le pen and particularly her father of
0:20:57 course uh most famously has he is his
0:21:00 neo-nazi uh connections historically and
0:21:03 she's from that kind of family tree
0:21:06 whereas zimmer perhaps being jewish
0:21:08 you know ancestry-wise algerian and so
0:21:11 on doesn't obviously doesn't have that
0:21:12 baggage
0:21:14 yeah and also zamora is able to get um
0:21:17 some catholic support that le pen isn't
0:21:19 able to get because le pen is an avowed
0:21:22 secularist so she says islam shouldn't
0:21:24 be allowed in the public sphere but you
0:21:26 know neither should christianity whereas
0:21:29 the more zuma's rhetoric was all about
0:21:31 um
0:21:32 you know asserting a kind of christian
0:21:34 frenchness so for that reason actually
0:21:36 uh
0:21:37 some zamur supporters
0:21:39 won't want to vote for le pen so that's
0:21:41 a challenge for le pen um now valerie
0:21:45 the cress she told her supporters to
0:21:47 vote for macron so she said le pen she
0:21:50 said this last night she gave a speech
0:21:52 she said yeah i've lost um le pen's too
0:21:55 extreme so vote for macron but they're
0:21:58 not going to do this uh 30
0:22:00 of picrest supporters will actually
0:22:02 abstain i mean levels of abstention
0:22:06 clearly in this election this is the
0:22:08 wild card isn't it this is the joker in
0:22:10 the pack abstentions you can't just as
0:22:12 as you've said you can't just transfer
0:22:14 they voted this way they're now gonna
0:22:16 vote this way because that's the natural
0:22:18 they may abstain and and this is really
0:22:21 wild because how can you predict this
0:22:23 outcome if you've got so many people who
0:22:25 just simply may refuse to vote at all
0:22:28 because they're just disgusted by the
0:22:30 alternatives i suppose
0:22:32 this is why both le pen and macron have
0:22:34 to work so hard over the next few weeks
0:22:36 to try and you know encourage voter
0:22:39 turnout and to say to people who don't
0:22:41 want to vote for anyone that you should
0:22:43 vote for me so
0:22:45 35 percent of procrasti supporters say
0:22:49 they'll vote le pen despite picres
0:22:52 saying
0:22:53 um don't vote for le pen 35
0:22:56 35 of them say they'll vote for macron
0:22:58 so it's sort of evenly split and then
0:23:00 you've got the 30 who are going to
0:23:01 abstain so it's not looking too good for
0:23:05 macron in that sense either meanwhile
0:23:07 supporters of the green candidate uh a
0:23:10 shocking
0:23:11 38
0:23:12 of them say that they'll abstain from
0:23:15 voting so they won't support macron now
0:23:18 we might think you know this is strange
0:23:20 but why but
0:23:22 why would they not because okay macron
0:23:24 may be bad but it's not as bad as the
0:23:26 alternative so why would they sit on
0:23:27 their hands and
0:23:29 maybe even effectively let le pen in by
0:23:32 refusing to participate i just don't see
0:23:34 the logic in there unless i'm missing
0:23:36 some obvious point here they don't uh
0:23:38 many of them don't necessarily see le
0:23:40 pen as um
0:23:42 that terrible because you know the green
0:23:44 candidate actually uh he's anti-muslim
0:23:48 um as well to an extent
0:23:50 on the one hand um he has opposed some
0:23:53 of the kind of you know anti-muslim
0:23:55 rhetoric he has that's true but he's
0:23:58 also uh supported a ban on ritual
0:24:01 slaughter so that's halal and kosher
0:24:03 slaughter so it's not so clear for many
0:24:06 of these supporters of the the green
0:24:07 candidate that le pen is uh you know
0:24:10 completely evil anything and that's why
0:24:12 you've got this kind of nearly 40
0:24:14 percent that are actually going to
0:24:15 abstain 50 56
0:24:18 i think um are gonna vote macron and
0:24:21 then you'll have a few you know about
0:24:23 five five six percent i think that will
0:24:25 go for uh le pen but it's still you know
0:24:29 it's it's a race where um both
0:24:31 candidates have a lot to to win and to
0:24:34 lose now most worrying for macron of
0:24:36 course is that melancholic supporters
0:24:39 are not just going to straightforwardly
0:24:41 go over to his side i mean 44
0:24:45 say
0:24:46 will abstain or at least you know
0:24:48 they'll vote a blank so they'll go and
0:24:50 vote they'll leave it blank so and
0:24:52 that's because a lot of these supporters
0:24:54 they say well both these candidates um
0:24:56 are awful we hate macron we can't
0:25:00 justify voting for him it's actually is
0:25:03 it's understandable uh in a sense uh but
0:25:06 of course
0:25:07 this
0:25:09 le pen and then
0:25:14 you know we've got a bit of a freeze on
0:25:15 the screen here i don't know if um
0:25:18 the the other this is another problem
0:25:19 for macron is that the other 56 percent
0:25:21 who are going 23 of them say yeah will
0:25:24 vote for macron the other 23 say will
0:25:27 support mary le pen so um it's it's not
0:25:30 completely secure for macron at all he
0:25:33 has to try and win melons from
0:25:35 supporters he has to mainly focus on
0:25:37 those who want to abstain um
0:25:39 and le pen has to try and make sure that
0:25:42 more melanchol supporters vote for her
0:25:46 i mean this this uncertainty it just
0:25:48 reminds me of political earthquakes
0:25:50 we've had elsewhere in in the west i i
0:25:53 mean i i vividly remember the the day
0:25:56 before the brexit vote i didn't bother
0:25:58 voting i would confess i didn't vote in
0:26:00 the brexit um uh referendum because i
0:26:03 thought there's no way we're going to
0:26:04 vote for brexit this is not going to
0:26:06 happen so why bother you know what an
0:26:08 idiot i was so brexit happened that was
0:26:10 one earthquake and then another
0:26:12 earthquake of course the earthquake of
0:26:13 earthquakes was donald trump in the
0:26:16 united states i didn't see that coming
0:26:18 at all and um neither did anyone else i
0:26:21 think trump saw it coming to be honest
0:26:22 uh he got elected
0:26:24 so you know we've had some pretty
0:26:26 unexpected earthquakes and um as you
0:26:29 know i'm going with this could le pen be
0:26:31 the next earthquake in the western
0:26:33 political system um
0:26:37 well i suppose um
0:26:39 it's possible i would still say it's
0:26:42 unlikely she's got an uphill climb it's
0:26:44 macron's race to lose but it's
0:26:46 definitely possible so it's something
0:26:48 it's something to be worried about uh
0:26:50 and to pray doesn't happen that there
0:26:53 could be some you know it's within the
0:26:54 margin of error the polling actually
0:26:56 when you actually pull um
0:26:59 the voting population and say who would
0:27:01 you vote for macron or le pen it's about
0:27:03 51
0:27:04 say uh macron 49 sailor pen so it's so
0:27:08 close and actually that is well within
0:27:10 the margin of error i mean you know if
0:27:12 the poles are just a bit off if things
0:27:14 change in the next two weeks uh le pen
0:27:16 could actually uh end up winning now the
0:27:20 the challenge in the paradox for macron
0:27:22 is that he decided to combat the far
0:27:25 right by adopting a really hard-line
0:27:27 attitude towards islam so under his uh
0:27:30 presidency there's been a massive
0:27:32 assault on muslim civil society hundreds
0:27:35 of muslim organizations uh closed down
0:27:38 yeah all of that so he so he sort of
0:27:40 sort of moved to the far right on the
0:27:43 issue of islam um and in that sense the
0:27:46 the hope is that you know this will um
0:27:50 get rid of some of these fears about
0:27:53 islam among the population they'll be
0:27:55 more willing to support macron but
0:27:57 actually paradoxically what i think is
0:28:00 done is it's normalized depends so there
0:28:02 is no longer this kind of um toxic cloud
0:28:06 around le pen that you couldn't possibly
0:28:07 vote for her she's she's against
0:28:10 she she's beyond the pale now it's like
0:28:12 well you know even the president um is
0:28:14 implementing some of these uh policies a
0:28:17 few years ago would have been
0:28:19 unthinkable so le pen's anti-muslim
0:28:21 policies are just sort of the logical
0:28:23 next step so we've actually seen the
0:28:26 normalization of le pen's previously
0:28:30 and this is this is different because i
0:28:31 remember the last time around when these
0:28:32 two characters faced each other in the
0:28:34 presidential election the toxicity of
0:28:38 le pen was a big big problem a big issue
0:28:41 and i think it obviously
0:28:42 probably sunk her in the end but now
0:28:44 you're saying the normalization of the
0:28:46 rhetoric through macron's perhaps
0:28:48 ill-conceived taking over some of her
0:28:50 ground and
0:28:52 making it mainstream she's now become
0:28:54 more of a respected uh figure and she's
0:28:56 her campaign has focused as you say on
0:28:58 much more mainstream issues like the
0:28:59 economy stand of living and other issues
0:29:02 that voters also care about so this is
0:29:04 different i think isn't it this this
0:29:06 time round same guys
0:29:09 slightly different way of some different
0:29:11 feel about it and is to her advantage i
0:29:14 think you're saying this time around
0:29:16 because she's no longer got this
0:29:18 edge that perhaps would put people off
0:29:21 now she's almost mainstream you seem to
0:29:24 be saying yeah and especially because uh
0:29:27 eric zumer has outflanked her on the far
0:29:29 right so now out the murrah seems like
0:29:31 the far right candidate with all the
0:29:33 extreme anti-muslim policies and le pen
0:29:35 is and then you've got marathron so le
0:29:37 pen is sort of in the middle she's
0:29:39 saying well actually i have the moderate
0:29:41 stance on islam now that's how far to
0:29:43 the right france has lurched and and
0:29:46 macron actually this is um he mentioned
0:29:49 uh islamist separatism in his speech
0:29:52 last night he said you know we're gonna
0:29:55 continue to crack down on islamist
0:29:57 secretism so this is only gonna um
0:30:00 you know if you're if you're a muslim a
0:30:02 french muslim this is only gonna make
0:30:04 you more likely to want to abstain and
0:30:06 to think well i can't vote for
0:30:08 macron actually and and macron needs to
0:30:11 be getting melanchom supporters um to
0:30:15 vote there many of them won't want to
0:30:17 because they perceive him to have
0:30:20 pandered to the far right and so it's
0:30:22 going to be it's going to be very
0:30:23 difficult for macron to actually um
0:30:26 you know he's going to have to put up a
0:30:28 big
0:30:29 show
0:30:30 to try and get these medal insurance
0:30:31 supporters to come on board and vote for
0:30:34 him
0:30:35 and it's unclear whether it will
0:30:37 ultimately happen
0:30:39 gosh
0:30:40 this very very troubling and
0:30:41 unpredictable uh times we live in well
0:30:44 thank you uh very much uh in indeed uh
0:30:47 imran for your insights your expertise
0:30:50 and keeping a careful eye on what's
0:30:52 going on there and uh god willing um
0:30:56 you might come back um after the 24th
0:30:58 maybe the 25th of april whenever it is
0:31:00 just to give us the uh
0:31:02 uh that the final verdict on what has
0:31:04 happened um
0:31:05 in france um i'm going back on uh
0:31:09 on wednesday and uh
0:31:11 uh a week or two um i'll have a chat
0:31:14 with some people there and see what they
0:31:15 think um
0:31:17 yeah you're observe observe the
0:31:18 political environment there
0:31:21 yeah uh as i said before the election
0:31:23 was uh in in the the he said what it was
0:31:26 the village i live in uh the the uh the
0:31:28 division political division seemed to be
0:31:30 pretty much uh the standard national
0:31:32 division doesn't seem to be any local
0:31:33 variants there uh in the the jais uh
0:31:37 department in southwest france so um
0:31:40 it's strange i actually don't know how
0:31:41 my neighbors vote i mean to think that
0:31:42 my my neighbor on my left may have
0:31:44 supported le pen and the neighbor on the
0:31:46 right most supported the greens i just
0:31:48 don't know and i i don't really want to
0:31:50 know actually because how will that
0:31:52 affect my relationships with people if i
0:31:54 if i know that they are well you know i
0:31:57 don't know what to say really it's
0:31:58 difficult anyway um
0:32:01 well that does say thank you very much
0:32:03 indeed imran for your time and uh and
0:32:05 your expertise and um
0:32:07 hopefully see you again god willing um
0:32:09 take care thank you
0:32:11 thank you
0:32:12 okay until next time